Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

216.26 – 90.97

83%17%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

175 – 157

Prediction correct · off by 53.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 692.4 ±8.7

10349Pontiac Firebirds

Season APEX 205.3Event APEX 59.53Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1498The Polar Pilots

Season APEX 250.1Event APEX 107.69Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

51Wings of Fire

Season APEX 237Event APEX 49.04Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 396.2 ±11.7

3539Byting Bulldogs

Season APEX 243.7Event APEX 74.71Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5860Full Metal Muskrats

Season APEX 103.3Event APEX 30.22Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9183RoboComets

Season APEX 49.2Event APEX -13.96Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10349, 1498, 51

/ 100 compat

Projected

216.3 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 10349, 1498, 51

Auto

35.0 16%

Teleop

125.2 58%

Endgame

56.3 26%

Strengths

· 1498 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3539, 5860, 9183

/ 100 compat

Projected

91 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 3539, 5860, 9183

Auto

36.8 37%

Teleop

43.0 43%

Endgame

19.7 20%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.27 · Blue 0.9

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score216.3pts

Blue projected score91pts

Red win probability83%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 125.3
Score range: 70–237
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 332 vs event baseline 113.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

692.4Season APEX396.2

35Auto36.8

125.2Teleop43

56.3Endgame19.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	35
teleop	80	99
endgame	73	18
foul	0	5
total	175	157

Result

Final score

175 – 157

Prediction correct · off by 53.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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