Qualification · Qualification 2
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
57.36 – 55.72
51%49%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
22 – 38
Prediction missed · off by 26.5 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 371.6 ±11.7
Season APEX 48.4Event APEX 14.18Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 62.1Event APEX 13.37Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 261.1Event APEX 29.81Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 220.5 ±12.2
Season APEX 56.5Event APEX 18Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 49.2Event APEX 18.14Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 114.8Event APEX 19.58Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 4994, 9251, 1506
37
/ 100 compatProjected
57.4 pts
~1.5 RP (district)
Teams: 4994, 9251, 1506
Auto
10.6 19%
Teleop
32.5 57%
Endgame
13.5 24%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 42%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 4130, 9183, 1718
30
/ 100 compatProjected
55.7 pts
~1.4 RP (district)
Teams: 4130, 9183, 1718
Auto
22.9 45%
Teleop
19.5 38%
Endgame
9.0 18%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 42%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.47 · Blue 1.42
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score57.4pts
Blue projected score55.7pts
Red win probability51%
Event bonus sample190alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 42%, blue 39%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 1.6
- Score range
- 29–84
- Upset likelihood
- 49%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
371.6Season APEX220.5
10.6Auto22.9
32.5Teleop19.5
13.5Endgame9
7Consistency25
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 11 | 16 |
| teleop | 0 | 17 |
| endgame | 11 | 5 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 22 | 38 |
Result
Final score
22 – 38
Prediction missed · off by 26.5 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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