Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

127.42 – 133.42

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

125 – 109

Prediction missed · off by 13.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 603.9 ±9.9

8728Argonauts

Season APEX 129.1Event APEX 14.93Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9245Laker Dreadnoughts

Season APEX 228.3Event APEX 77.41Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2851Crevolution

Season APEX 246.5Event APEX 35.08Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 234.1 ±12.8

7813New Haven RoboRaptors

Season APEX 41Event APEX 5.86Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4994Kingston Robo-Cards

Season APEX 48.4Event APEX 32.15Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5843Flurb

Season APEX 144.7Event APEX 95.41Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8728, 9245, 2851

/ 100 compat

Projected

127.4 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 8728, 9245, 2851

Auto

16.9 14%

Teleop

65.1 52%

Endgame

42.6 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7813, 4994, 5843

/ 100 compat

Projected

133.4 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 7813, 4994, 5843

Auto

28.4 21%

Teleop

66.6 49%

Endgame

40.5 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.53 · Blue 1.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score127.4pts

Blue projected score133.4pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -6
Score range: 107–153
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 234 vs event baseline 113.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

603.9Season APEX234.1

16.9Auto28.4

65.1Teleop66.6

42.6Endgame40.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	8
teleop	79	54
endgame	8	42
foul	5	5
total	125	109

Result

Final score

125 – 109

Prediction missed · off by 13.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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