Qualification · Qualification 16
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
40.17 – 22.51
55%45%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
32 – 53
Prediction missed · off by 19.3 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 251.7 ±12.7
Season APEX 62.1Event APEX 12.61Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 81Event APEX -9.62Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 108.6Event APEX 37.18Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 201.3 ±13.3
Season APEX 85.3Event APEX 13.55Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 72.6Event APEX 34.24Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 43.4Event APEX -25.28Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 9251, 5612, 7211
28
/ 100 compatProjected
40.2 pts
~1.6 RP (district)
Teams: 9251, 5612, 7211
Auto
3.6 9%
Teleop
12.8 30%
Endgame
25.7 61%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 45%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 4961, 5926, 8364
15
/ 100 compatProjected
22.5 pts
~1.3 RP (district)
Teams: 4961, 5926, 8364
Auto
9.7 48%
Teleop
-6.8 0%
Endgame
17.2 86%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 45%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.6 · Blue 1.33
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score40.2pts
Blue projected score22.5pts
Red win probability55%
Event bonus sample190alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 45%, blue 40%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 17.7
- Score range
- 2–61
- Upset likelihood
- 45%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
251.7Season APEX201.3
3.6Auto9.7
12.8Teleop-6.8
25.7Endgame17.2
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 13 | 14 |
| teleop | 18 | 27 |
| endgame | 1 | 12 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 32 | 53 |
Result
Final score
32 – 53
Prediction missed · off by 19.3 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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