Qualification · Qualification 15
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
48.15 – 54.92
48%52%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
82 – 113
Prediction correct · off by 46 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 462 ±11.2
Season APEX 57.3Event APEX 1.09Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 261.1Event APEX -15.75Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 143.6Event APEX 62.81Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 225.9 ±12.2
Season APEX 40.6Event APEX 5.51Rank 39Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 45.5Event APEX 12.83Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 139.8Event APEX 36.58Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 6344, 1506, 4779
43
/ 100 compatProjected
48.2 pts
~1.4 RP (district)
Teams: 6344, 1506, 4779
Auto
9.2 18%
Teleop
23.6 46%
Endgame
18.5 36%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 45%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 5167, 9252, 894
50
/ 100 compatProjected
54.9 pts
~1.6 RP (district)
Teams: 5167, 9252, 894
Auto
11.2 22%
Teleop
26.2 51%
Endgame
14.1 27%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 45%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.45 · Blue 1.56
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score48.2pts
Blue projected score54.9pts
Red win probability48%
Event bonus sample190alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 45%, blue 48%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -6.8
- Score range
- 27–76
- Upset likelihood
- 48%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
462Season APEX225.9
9.2Auto11.2
23.6Teleop26.2
18.5Endgame14.1
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 19 | 19 |
| teleop | 45 | 70 |
| endgame | 18 | 24 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 82 | 113 |
Result
Final score
82 – 113
Prediction correct · off by 46 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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