Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

53.63 – 153.3

22%78%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

32 – 250

Prediction correct · off by 59.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 165 ±13.3

7247Magical Smurfs

Season APEX 62.2Event APEX 34.5Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6091Eagle 1

Season APEX 41.4Event APEX 17.71Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9558The Steel Vipers

Season APEX 61.4Event APEX 1.42Rank 35Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 537.9 ±10.5

11493Pixel Knights

Season APEX 227.1Event APEX 47.11Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1498The Polar Pilots

Season APEX 250.1Event APEX 68.2Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3667Mecanum Knights

Season APEX 60.7Event APEX 37.99Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7247, 6091, 9558

/ 100 compat

Projected

53.6 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 7247, 6091, 9558

Auto

26.5 52%

Teleop

14.3 28%

Endgame

9.7 19%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11493, 1498, 3667

/ 100 compat

Projected

153.3 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 11493, 1498, 3667

Auto

20.3 13%

Teleop

93.2 60%

Endgame

42.5 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.87 · Blue 2.16

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score53.6pts

Blue projected score153.3pts

Red win probability22%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -99.7
Score range: 33–174
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 282 vs event baseline 115.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

165Season APEX537.9

26.5Auto20.3

14.3Teleop93.2

9.7Endgame42.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	50
teleop	0	140
endgame	10	60
foul	0	0
total	32	250

Result

Final score

32 – 250

Prediction correct · off by 59.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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