Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

149.3 – 167.78

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

152 – 151

Prediction missed · off by 9.7 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 440.2 ±11.1

7211Hollywood

Season APEX 108.6Event APEX 38.58Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5860Full Metal Muskrats

Season APEX 103.3Event APEX 28.72Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9245Laker Dreadnoughts

Season APEX 228.3Event APEX 82Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 352.4 ±11.7

9747ElectroPanthers II

Season APEX 99.4Event APEX 38.58Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8280K9.0 Robotics

Season APEX 180.4Event APEX 82Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5926Da Moose

Season APEX 72.6Event APEX 47.2Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7211, 5860, 9245

/ 100 compat

Projected

149.3 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 7211, 5860, 9245

Auto

18.8 13%

Teleop

80.3 55%

Endgame

47.9 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9747, 8280, 5926

/ 100 compat

Projected

167.8 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 9747, 8280, 5926

Auto

22.7 14%

Teleop

85.8 51%

Endgame

59.1 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.43 · Blue 1.7

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score149.3pts

Blue projected score167.8pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -18.5
Score range: 130–187
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 303 vs event baseline 105.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

440.2Season APEX352.4

18.8Auto22.7

80.3Teleop85.8

47.9Endgame59.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	34
teleop	80	69
endgame	49	33
foul	0	15
total	152	151

Result

Final score

152 – 151

Prediction missed · off by 9.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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