Qualification · Qualification 11
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
45.86 – 49.4
49%51%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
32 – 27
Prediction missed · off by 18.1 points
Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.
red allianceTotal Season APEX 320.6 ±12.4
Season APEX 81Event APEX 11.87Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 41Event APEX 17.83Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 198.6Event APEX 16.16Rank 15Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 366 ±12.4
Season APEX 43.4Event APEX 3.04Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 61.5Event APEX 67.85Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 261.1Event APEX -21.49Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 5612, 7813, 818
37
/ 100 compatProjected
45.9 pts
~1.4 RP (district)
Teams: 5612, 7813, 818
Auto
20.0 46%
Teleop
11.8 27%
Endgame
11.8 27%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 39%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 8364, 5214, 1506
48
/ 100 compatProjected
49.4 pts
~1.5 RP (district)
Teams: 8364, 5214, 1506
Auto
9.9 20%
Teleop
26.9 55%
Endgame
12.4 25%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 39%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.41 · Blue 1.47
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score45.9pts
Blue projected score49.4pts
Red win probability49%
Event bonus sample190alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 39%, blue 41%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -3.5
- Score range
- 26–69
- Upset likelihood
- 49%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
320.6Season APEX366
20Auto9.9
11.8Teleop26.9
11.8Endgame12.4
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 14 | 16 |
| teleop | 13 | 7 |
| endgame | 5 | 4 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 32 | 27 |
Result
Final score
32 – 27
Prediction missed · off by 18.1 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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