Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

57.16 – 43.45

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

143 – 42

Prediction correct · off by 43.6 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 369.4 ±11.7

3667Mecanum Knights

Season APEX 60.7Event APEX 10.86Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7247Magical Smurfs

Season APEX 62.2Event APEX 27.71Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2851Crevolution

Season APEX 246.5Event APEX 18.59Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 139.3 ±13.3

6091Eagle 1

Season APEX 41.4Event APEX 18.59Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5167Vi-Bots

Season APEX 40.6Event APEX 14Rank 39Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6344Yale Jiggawattz

Season APEX 57.3Event APEX 10.86Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3667, 7247, 2851

/ 100 compat

Projected

57.2 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 3667, 7247, 2851

Auto

21.4 41%

Teleop

23.5 45%

Endgame

7.5 14%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6091, 5167, 6344

/ 100 compat

Projected

43.5 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 6091, 5167, 6344

Auto

5.7 15%

Teleop

23.2 60%

Endgame

9.8 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.73 · Blue 1.32

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score57.2pts

Blue projected score43.5pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 13.7
Score range: 22–78
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 185 vs event baseline 115.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

369.4Season APEX139.3

21.4Auto5.7

23.5Teleop23.2

7.5Endgame9.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	58	13
teleop	59	17
endgame	26	12
foul	0	0
total	143	42

Result

Final score

143 – 42

Prediction correct · off by 43.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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