Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

190.38 – 63.23

83%17%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

186 – 49

Prediction correct · off by 9.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 426.3 ±11.7

33Killer Bees

Season APEX 256.8Event APEX 153.2Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

453Rockem Sockem Robotics

Season APEX 66.2Event APEX 24.2Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5860Full Metal Muskrats

Season APEX 103.3Event APEX 12.98Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 176.3 ±13.3

5612Robo-Raptors

Season APEX 81Event APEX 14.36Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5167Vi-Bots

Season APEX 40.6Event APEX 14.9Rank 39Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7597Team HorsePowered

Season APEX 54.7Event APEX 33.97Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 33, 453, 5860

/ 100 compat

Projected

190.4 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 33, 453, 5860

Auto

31.1 17%

Teleop

120.9 65%

Endgame

34.0 18%

Strengths

· 33 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5612, 5167, 7597

/ 100 compat

Projected

63.2 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5612, 5167, 7597

Auto

21.1 34%

Teleop

23.1 38%

Endgame

17.0 28%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.22 · Blue 0.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score190.4pts

Blue projected score63.2pts

Red win probability83%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 127.2
Score range: 36–217
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 235 vs event baseline 149.7.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

426.3Season APEX176.3

31.1Auto21.1

120.9Teleop23.1

34Endgame17

21Consistency68

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	14
teleop	126	18
endgame	33	17
foul	5	0
total	186	49

Result

Final score

186 – 49

Prediction correct · off by 9.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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