FIM District LSSU Event presented by Lake Superior State University

Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

257.21 – 189.42

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

239 – 192

Prediction correct · off by 10.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 435 ±10.5

4398Gladiators

Season APEX 144.5Event APEX 116.28Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5486Robotic Turmoil

Season APEX 56.3Event APEX 22.6Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5216E-Ville Empire

Season APEX 234.2Event APEX 118.33Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 234.9 ±12.7

1596The Instigators

Season APEX 76.6Event APEX 70.19Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7814RV Gearheads

Season APEX 88.1Event APEX 70.79Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5314Ice Bots

Season APEX 70.2Event APEX 48.44Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4398, 5486, 5216

/ 100 compat

Projected

257.2 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 4398, 5486, 5216

Auto

52.8 21%

Teleop

139.7 55%

Endgame

59.7 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1596, 7814, 5314

/ 100 compat

Projected

189.4 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 1596, 7814, 5314

Auto

27.7 15%

Teleop

102.1 55%

Endgame

55.9 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.06 · Blue 1.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score257.2pts

Blue projected score189.4pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 67.8
Score range: 163–283
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 431 vs event baseline 144.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

435Season APEX234.9

52.8Auto27.7

139.7Teleop102.1

59.7Endgame55.9

55Consistency51

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	52	27
teleop	144	119
endgame	23	46
foul	20	0
total	239	192

Result

Final score

239 – 192

Prediction correct · off by 10.4 pts

Match videos

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