FIM District LSSU Event presented by Lake Superior State University

Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

215.96 – 145.94

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

175 – 147

Prediction correct · off by 21 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 354.8 ±11

8517Bounty Hunters

Season APEX 170.6Event APEX 124.61Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4375Westend Gearbusters

Season APEX 78.2Event APEX 28.36Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10666Green MachineZ

Season APEX 106Event APEX 62.99Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 276.5 ±11.6

7768The AutoMatons

Season APEX 79.4Event APEX 40.63Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

857Superior Roboworks

Season APEX 103Event APEX 60.11Rank 8Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10589Binary Crows

Season APEX 94.1Event APEX 45.2Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8517, 4375, 10666

/ 100 compat

Projected

216 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 8517, 4375, 10666

Auto

38.2 18%

Teleop

129.7 61%

Endgame

46.2 22%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7768, 857, 10589

/ 100 compat

Projected

145.9 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 7768, 857, 10589

Auto

31.8 22%

Teleop

78.0 53%

Endgame

37.2 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.03 · Blue 1.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score216pts

Blue projected score145.9pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 70
Score range: 120–242
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 322 vs event baseline 143.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

354.8Season APEX276.5

38.2Auto31.8

129.7Teleop78

46.2Endgame37.2

101Consistency19

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	43
teleop	83	58
endgame	70	46
foul	0	0
total	175	147

Result

Final score

175 – 147

Prediction correct · off by 21 pts

Match videos

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