Playoff · Playoff Match 7 R2
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
268.83 – 140.98
83%17%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
199 – 245
Prediction missed · off by 86.9 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 435 ±10.5
Season APEX 144.5Event APEX 120.84Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 56.3Event APEX 26.23Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 234.2Event APEX 121.76Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 441.4 ±9.8
Season APEX 216.6Event APEX 78.05Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 81.2Event APEX -9.16Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 143.6Event APEX 72.09Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 4398, 5486, 5216
84
/ 100 compatProjected
268.8 pts
~2.3 RP (district)
Teams: 4398, 5486, 5216
Auto
55.0 21%
Teleop
147.2 56%
Endgame
61.5 23%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 62%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 6121, 6088, 4779
65
/ 100 compatProjected
141 pts
~0.9 RP (district)
Teams: 6121, 6088, 4779
Auto
34.0 25%
Teleop
75.7 55%
Endgame
28.2 20%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 62%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.32 · Blue 0.87
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score268.8pts
Blue projected score141pts
Red win probability83%
Event bonus sample194alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 62%, blue 49%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 127.9
- Score range
- 115–295
- Upset likelihood
- 17%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
435Season APEX441.4
55Auto34
147.2Teleop75.7
61.5Endgame28.2
49Consistency52
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 43 | 65 |
| teleop | 98 | 92 |
| endgame | 53 | 58 |
| foul | 5 | 30 |
| total | 199 | 245 |
Result
Final score
199 – 245
Prediction missed · off by 86.9 pts
Match videos
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