FIM District LSSU Event presented by Lake Superior State University

Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

188.2 – 199.96

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

196 – 179

Prediction missed · off by 14.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 234.9 ±12.7

1596The Instigators

Season APEX 76.6Event APEX 69.83Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7814RV Gearheads

Season APEX 88.1Event APEX 70.33Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5314Ice Bots

Season APEX 70.2Event APEX 48.04Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 351.4 ±11.7

3536Electro Eagles

Season APEX 214.6Event APEX 105.68Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6098bIrobot

Season APEX 34.9Event APEX 13.12Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6077Wiking Kujon

Season APEX 101.9Event APEX 81.16Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1596, 7814, 5314

/ 100 compat

Projected

188.2 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 1596, 7814, 5314

Auto

27.7 15%

Teleop

101.4 54%

Endgame

57.3 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3536, 6098, 6077

/ 100 compat

Projected

200 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 3536, 6098, 6077

Auto

41.8 21%

Teleop

107.7 54%

Endgame

50.9 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.57 · Blue 1.75

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score188.2pts

Blue projected score200pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -11.8
Score range: 162–226
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 375 vs event baseline 142.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

234.9Season APEX351.4

27.7Auto41.8

101.4Teleop107.7

57.3Endgame50.9

43Consistency37

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	51
teleop	102	92
endgame	50	36
foul	15	0
total	196	179

Result

Final score

196 – 179

Prediction missed · off by 14.4 pts

Match videos

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