FIM District LSSU Event presented by Lake Superior State University

Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

229.37 – 178.28

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

154 – 198

Prediction missed · off by 47.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 364.3 ±11

6637BetaWolves

Season APEX 147.8Event APEX 78.69Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3452GreengineerZ

Season APEX 120.2Event APEX 78.76Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9674Trojan Power Robotics

Season APEX 96.3Event APEX 71.92Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 335 ±10.5

5424Rogue Robots

Season APEX 39Event APEX 37.44Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4967That ONE Team-OurNextEngineers

Season APEX 150.8Event APEX 78.01Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4392The Deceivers

Season APEX 145.2Event APEX 62.83Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6637, 3452, 9674

/ 100 compat

Projected

229.4 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 6637, 3452, 9674

Auto

41.2 18%

Teleop

125.2 55%

Endgame

59.8 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5424, 4967, 4392

/ 100 compat

Projected

178.3 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5424, 4967, 4392

Auto

40.1 23%

Teleop

97.8 57%

Endgame

34.3 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.99 · Blue 1.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score229.4pts

Blue projected score178.3pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 51.1
Score range: 152–255
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 352 vs event baseline 142.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

364.3Season APEX335

41.2Auto40.1

125.2Teleop97.8

59.8Endgame34.3

28Consistency68

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	47
teleop	75	103
endgame	39	43
foul	5	5
total	154	198

Result

Final score

154 – 198

Prediction missed · off by 47.5 pts

Match videos

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