FIM District LSSU Event presented by Lake Superior State University

Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

204.26 – 126.71

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

184 – 227

Prediction missed · off by 60.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 351.4 ±11.7

3536Electro Eagles

Season APEX 214.6Event APEX 107.21Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6098bIrobot

Season APEX 34.9Event APEX 14.53Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6077Wiking Kujon

Season APEX 101.9Event APEX 82.52Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 276.5 ±11.6

7768The AutoMatons

Season APEX 79.4Event APEX 34.47Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

857Superior Roboworks

Season APEX 103Event APEX 53.55Rank 8Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10589Binary Crows

Season APEX 94.1Event APEX 38.69Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3536, 6098, 6077

/ 100 compat

Projected

204.3 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 3536, 6098, 6077

Auto

36.2 18%

Teleop

114.6 56%

Endgame

54.0 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7768, 857, 10589

/ 100 compat

Projected

126.7 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 7768, 857, 10589

Auto

28.6 22%

Teleop

68.2 53%

Endgame

30.7 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.12 · Blue 1.09

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score204.3pts

Blue projected score126.7pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 77.6
Score range: 102–229
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 411 vs event baseline 141.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

351.4Season APEX276.5

36.2Auto28.6

114.6Teleop68.2

54Endgame30.7

34Consistency20

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	65	48
teleop	80	114
endgame	39	65
foul	0	0
total	184	227

Result

Final score

184 – 227

Prediction missed · off by 60.3 pts

Match videos

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