FIM District LSSU Event presented by Lake Superior State University

Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

211.63 – 177.48

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

240 – 229

Prediction correct · off by 39.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 354.8 ±11

8517Bounty Hunters

Season APEX 170.6Event APEX 123.33Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4375Westend Gearbusters

Season APEX 78.2Event APEX 26.49Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10666Green MachineZ

Season APEX 106Event APEX 61.81Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 234.9 ±12.7

1596The Instigators

Season APEX 76.6Event APEX 66.85Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7814RV Gearheads

Season APEX 88.1Event APEX 66.89Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5314Ice Bots

Season APEX 70.2Event APEX 43.74Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8517, 4375, 10666

/ 100 compat

Projected

211.6 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 8517, 4375, 10666

Auto

37.0 18%

Teleop

120.3 58%

Endgame

51.5 25%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1596, 7814, 5314

/ 100 compat

Projected

177.5 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 1596, 7814, 5314

Auto

23.4 13%

Teleop

104.9 59%

Endgame

48.2 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.83 · Blue 1.44

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score211.6pts

Blue projected score177.5pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 34.2
Score range: 152–237
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 469 vs event baseline 140.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

354.8Season APEX234.9

37Auto23.4

120.3Teleop104.9

51.5Endgame48.2

108Consistency45

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	47	47
teleop	165	86
endgame	28	91
foul	0	5
total	240	229

Result

Final score

240 – 229

Prediction correct · off by 39.9 pts

Match videos

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