FIM District LSSU Event presented by Lake Superior State University

Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

200.2 – 147.13

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

101 – 125

Prediction missed · off by 60.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 335 ±10.5

5424Rogue Robots

Season APEX 39Event APEX 44.25Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4967That ONE Team-OurNextEngineers

Season APEX 150.8Event APEX 86.77Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4392The Deceivers

Season APEX 145.2Event APEX 69.18Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 441.4 ±9.8

6121RoboVikes

Season APEX 216.6Event APEX 78.4Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6088Stephenson Eagles

Season APEX 81.2Event APEX -6.67Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4779RoboSapiens

Season APEX 143.6Event APEX 75.4Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5424, 4967, 4392

/ 100 compat

Projected

200.2 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5424, 4967, 4392

Auto

42.4 22%

Teleop

116.5 59%

Endgame

37.5 19%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6121, 6088, 4779

/ 100 compat

Projected

147.1 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 6121, 6088, 4779

Auto

32.8 22%

Teleop

81.4 56%

Endgame

32.4 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.84 · Blue 1.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score200.2pts

Blue projected score147.1pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 53.1
Score range: 122–225
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 226 vs event baseline 140.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

335Season APEX441.4

42.4Auto32.8

116.5Teleop81.4

37.5Endgame32.4

68Consistency47

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	42
teleop	31	54
endgame	21	14
foul	15	15
total	101	125

Result

Final score

101 – 125

Prediction missed · off by 60.7 pts

Match videos

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