FIM District LSSU Event presented by Lake Superior State University

Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

201.43 – 193.07

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

189 – 175

Prediction correct · off by 15.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 354.8 ±11

8517Bounty Hunters

Season APEX 170.6Event APEX 120.52Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4375Westend Gearbusters

Season APEX 78.2Event APEX 22.88Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10666Green MachineZ

Season APEX 106Event APEX 58.03Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 335 ±10.5

5424Rogue Robots

Season APEX 39Event APEX 41.8Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4967That ONE Team-OurNextEngineers

Season APEX 150.8Event APEX 83.89Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4392The Deceivers

Season APEX 145.2Event APEX 67.38Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8517, 4375, 10666

/ 100 compat

Projected

201.4 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 8517, 4375, 10666

Auto

33.4 17%

Teleop

117.6 59%

Endgame

49.2 25%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5424, 4967, 4392

/ 100 compat

Projected

193.1 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 5424, 4967, 4392

Auto

43.3 23%

Teleop

105.9 56%

Endgame

38.3 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.67 · Blue 1.47

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score201.4pts

Blue projected score193.1pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 8.4
Score range: 167–227
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 364 vs event baseline 147.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

354.8Season APEX335

33.4Auto43.3

117.6Teleop105.9

49.2Endgame38.3

111Consistency51

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	82
teleop	87	65
endgame	27	28
foul	30	0
total	189	175

Result

Final score

189 – 175

Prediction correct · off by 15.3 pts

Match videos

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