FIM District LSSU Event presented by Lake Superior State University

Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

181.7 – 254.31

29%71%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

269 – 225

Prediction missed · off by 58.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 335 ±10.5

5424Rogue Robots

Season APEX 39Event APEX 38.17Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4967That ONE Team-OurNextEngineers

Season APEX 150.8Event APEX 79.94Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4392The Deceivers

Season APEX 145.2Event APEX 63.59Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 435 ±10.5

4398Gladiators

Season APEX 144.5Event APEX 114.63Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5486Robotic Turmoil

Season APEX 56.3Event APEX 21.93Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5216E-Ville Empire

Season APEX 234.2Event APEX 117.75Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5424, 4967, 4392

/ 100 compat

Projected

181.7 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5424, 4967, 4392

Auto

41.3 23%

Teleop

96.0 55%

Endgame

38.7 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4398, 5486, 5216

/ 100 compat

Projected

254.3 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 4398, 5486, 5216

Auto

52.5 21%

Teleop

140.2 57%

Endgame

54.5 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.09 · Blue 2.08

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score181.7pts

Blue projected score254.3pts

Red win probability29%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -72.6
Score range: 156–280
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 494 vs event baseline 145.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

335Season APEX435

41.3Auto52.5

96Teleop140.2

38.7Endgame54.5

70Consistency62

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	57	52
teleop	171	89
endgame	36	69
foul	5	15
total	269	225

Result

Final score

269 – 225

Prediction missed · off by 58.3 pts

Match videos

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