Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
158.85 – 209.2
35%65%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
281 – 163
Prediction missed · off by 84.2 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 441.4 ±9.8
Season APEX 216.6Event APEX 84.37Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 81.2Event APEX -3.46Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 143.6Event APEX 77.94Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 354.8 ±11
Season APEX 170.6Event APEX 122.49Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 78.2Event APEX 26.04Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 106Event APEX 60.67Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 6121, 6088, 4779
69
/ 100 compatProjected
158.9 pts
~1.2 RP (district)
Teams: 6121, 6088, 4779
Auto
39.1 26%
Teleop
79.3 52%
Endgame
33.0 22%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 49%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 8517, 4375, 10666
84
/ 100 compatProjected
209.2 pts
~1.9 RP (district)
Teams: 8517, 4375, 10666
Auto
35.4 17%
Teleop
122.2 59%
Endgame
50.2 24%
Strengths
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 49%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.23 · Blue 1.92
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score158.9pts
Blue projected score209.2pts
Red win probability35%
Event bonus sample194alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 49%, blue 58%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -50.3
- Score range
- 133–235
- Upset likelihood
- 35%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
441.4Season APEX354.8
39.1Auto35.4
79.3Teleop122.2
33Endgame50.2
37Consistency107
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 62 | 23 |
| teleop | 157 | 95 |
| endgame | 62 | 45 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 281 | 163 |
Result
Final score
281 – 163
Prediction missed · off by 84.2 pts
Match videos
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