FIM District LSSU Event presented by Lake Superior State University

Qualification · Qualification 82

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

125.88 – 149.81

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

109 – 181

Prediction correct · off by 24 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 354.9 ±11.2

5706Tahquamenon Phenomenon

Season APEX 59.1Event APEX 22.93Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3536Electro Eagles

Season APEX 214.6Event APEX 108.36Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6088Stephenson Eagles

Season APEX 81.2Event APEX -5.41Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 312 ±12.8

9548Bark River Bronconaughts

Season APEX 98.2Event APEX 36.16Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4779RoboSapiens

Season APEX 143.6Event APEX 73.09Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5314Ice Bots

Season APEX 70.2Event APEX 40.56Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5706, 3536, 6088

/ 100 compat

Projected

125.9 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5706, 3536, 6088

Auto

26.3 21%

Teleop

79.1 63%

Endgame

20.7 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9548, 4779, 5314

/ 100 compat

Projected

149.8 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 9548, 4779, 5314

Auto

19.1 13%

Teleop

76.6 51%

Endgame

54.4 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.39 · Blue 1.85

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score125.9pts

Blue projected score149.8pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -23.9
Score range: 101–175
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 290 vs event baseline 139.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

354.9Season APEX312

26.3Auto19.1

79.1Teleop76.6

20.7Endgame54.4

51Consistency56

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	40
teleop	43	89
endgame	36	52
foul	0	0
total	109	181

Result

Final score

109 – 181

Prediction correct · off by 24 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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