FIM District LSSU Event presented by Lake Superior State University

Qualification · Qualification 81

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

136.8 – 69.91

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

168 – 97

Prediction correct · off by 29.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 284.6 ±11.7

4967That ONE Team-OurNextEngineers

Season APEX 150.8Event APEX 84.31Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6558Aluminum Sting

Season APEX 55.6Event APEX 28.72Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4375Westend Gearbusters

Season APEX 78.2Event APEX 23.77Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 181.3 ±13.3

5424Rogue Robots

Season APEX 39Event APEX 41.91Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10595Big Bay de Noc Black Bear Bolts

Season APEX 70.3Event APEX 20.32Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9722Polar Robotics

Season APEX 72Event APEX 7.68Rank 39Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4967, 6558, 4375

/ 100 compat

Projected

136.8 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 4967, 6558, 4375

Auto

25.7 19%

Teleop

70.7 54%

Endgame

35.4 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5424, 10595, 9722

/ 100 compat

Projected

69.9 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5424, 10595, 9722

Auto

18.5 29%

Teleop

31.9 49%

Endgame

14.4 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.01 · Blue 1.06

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score136.8pts

Blue projected score69.9pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 66.9
Score range: 45–162
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 265 vs event baseline 139.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

284.6Season APEX181.3

25.7Auto18.5

70.7Teleop31.9

35.4Endgame14.4

74Consistency49

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	19
teleop	101	48
endgame	42	20
foul	0	10
total	168	97

Result

Final score

168 – 97

Prediction correct · off by 29.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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