Qualification · Qualification 8
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
173.71 – 84.86
75%25%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
169 – 111
Prediction correct · off by 15.4 points
Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.
red allianceTotal Season APEX 386.8 ±11.7
Season APEX 82.4Event APEX 65.71Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 234.2Event APEX 60.86Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 70.2Event APEX 47.14Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 343.2 ±11.7
Season APEX 216.6Event APEX 40.57Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 56.3Event APEX 23.43Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 70.3Event APEX 20.86Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 9249, 5216, 5314
88
/ 100 compatProjected
173.7 pts
~2.2 RP (district)
Teams: 9249, 5216, 5314
Auto
26.3 15%
Teleop
98.6 58%
Endgame
46.0 27%
Strengths
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 62%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 6121, 5486, 10595
58
/ 100 compatProjected
84.9 pts
~1.1 RP (district)
Teams: 6121, 5486, 10595
Auto
28.0 35%
Teleop
37.1 47%
Endgame
14.0 18%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 62%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.16 · Blue 1.05
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score173.7pts
Blue projected score84.9pts
Red win probability75%
Event bonus sample194alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 62%, blue 51%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 88.9
- Score range
- 65–194
- Upset likelihood
- 25%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
386.8Season APEX343.2
26.3Auto28
98.6Teleop37.1
46Endgame14
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 31 | 19 |
| teleop | 92 | 56 |
| endgame | 41 | 21 |
| foul | 5 | 15 |
| total | 169 | 111 |
Result
Final score
169 – 111
Prediction correct · off by 15.4 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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