FIM District LSSU Event presented by Lake Superior State University

Qualification · Qualification 79

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

157.41 – 113.47

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

207 – 133

Prediction correct · off by 34.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 253.4 ±11.6

8517Bounty Hunters

Season APEX 170.6Event APEX 119.83Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5213St. Ignace SHIELD

Season APEX 34.8Event APEX 13.61Rank 40Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10622Gwinn ModelBots

Season APEX 48Event APEX 23.97Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 211.4 ±12.2

6098bIrobot

Season APEX 34.9Event APEX 13.02Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3452GreengineerZ

Season APEX 120.2Event APEX 76.48Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5486Robotic Turmoil

Season APEX 56.3Event APEX 23.97Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8517, 5213, 10622

/ 100 compat

Projected

157.4 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 8517, 5213, 10622

Auto

36.5 23%

Teleop

83.4 53%

Endgame

36.1 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6098, 3452, 5486

/ 100 compat

Projected

113.5 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 6098, 3452, 5486

Auto

13.6 13%

Teleop

55.5 52%

Endgame

37.1 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.87 · Blue 1.32

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score157.4pts

Blue projected score113.5pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 43.9
Score range: 88–182
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 340 vs event baseline 138.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

253.4Season APEX211.4

36.5Auto13.6

83.4Teleop55.5

36.1Endgame37.1

135Consistency19

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	47	32
teleop	119	73
endgame	36	28
foul	5	0
total	207	133

Result

Final score

207 – 133

Prediction correct · off by 34.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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