FIM District LSSU Event presented by Lake Superior State University

Qualification · Qualification 75

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

156.88 – 169.25

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

202 – 227

Prediction correct · off by 51.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 286 ±12.2

8517Bounty Hunters

Season APEX 170.6Event APEX 116.48Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5486Robotic Turmoil

Season APEX 56.3Event APEX 20.56Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5706Tahquamenon Phenomenon

Season APEX 59.1Event APEX 19.84Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 327.9 ±11.6

6077Wiking Kujon

Season APEX 101.9Event APEX 77.6Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6637BetaWolves

Season APEX 147.8Event APEX 71.38Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4375Westend Gearbusters

Season APEX 78.2Event APEX 20.27Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8517, 5486, 5706

/ 100 compat

Projected

156.9 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 8517, 5486, 5706

Auto

31.6 21%

Teleop

84.7 57%

Endgame

31.6 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6077, 6637, 4375

/ 100 compat

Projected

169.3 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 6077, 6637, 4375

Auto

30.2 18%

Teleop

83.7 50%

Endgame

53.6 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.52 · Blue 1.7

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score156.9pts

Blue projected score169.3pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -12.4
Score range: 132–194
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 429 vs event baseline 137.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

286Season APEX327.9

31.6Auto30.2

84.7Teleop83.7

31.6Endgame53.6

70Consistency58

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	44
teleop	98	119
endgame	62	59
foul	0	5
total	202	227

Result

Final score

202 – 227

Prediction correct · off by 51.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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