FIM District LSSU Event presented by Lake Superior State University

Qualification · Qualification 72

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

172.79 – 55.24

81%19%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

114 – 69

Prediction correct · off by 36.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 237.1 ±12.2

10622Gwinn ModelBots

Season APEX 48Event APEX 29.37Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5547The Talons

Season APEX 44.6Event APEX 13.34Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4398Gladiators

Season APEX 144.5Event APEX 130.08Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 265.9 ±11.7

6088Stephenson Eagles

Season APEX 81.2Event APEX -5.16Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4392The Deceivers

Season APEX 145.2Event APEX 72.73Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6113M.A.R.C. 1

Season APEX 39.5Event APEX -12.33Rank 41Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10622, 5547, 4398

/ 100 compat

Projected

172.8 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 10622, 5547, 4398

Auto

34.7 20%

Teleop

86.0 50%

Endgame

50.4 29%

Strengths

· 4398 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6088, 4392, 6113

/ 100 compat

Projected

55.2 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 6088, 4392, 6113

Auto

24.0 43%

Teleop

40.5 72%

Endgame

-8.3 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.33 · Blue 0.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score172.8pts

Blue projected score55.2pts

Red win probability81%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 117.5
Score range: 30–198
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 183 vs event baseline 137.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

237.1Season APEX265.9

34.7Auto24

86Teleop40.5

50.4Endgame-8.3

81Consistency55

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	12
teleop	42	41
endgame	27	1
foul	0	15
total	114	69

Result

Final score

114 – 69

Prediction correct · off by 36.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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