FIM District LSSU Event presented by Lake Superior State University

Qualification · Qualification 70

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

64.47 – 162.58

23%77%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

105 – 188

Prediction correct · off by 33 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 181.8 ±13.9

5878The Great Lakers

Season APEX 41.3Event APEX 9.79Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5314Ice Bots

Season APEX 70.2Event APEX 37.12Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10595Big Bay de Noc Black Bear Bolts

Season APEX 70.3Event APEX 17.56Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 213.2 ±12.7

9674Trojan Power Robotics

Season APEX 96.3Event APEX 74.87Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7713Norse Code

Season APEX 77.9Event APEX 46.1Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5424Rogue Robots

Season APEX 39Event APEX 41.61Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5878, 5314, 10595

/ 100 compat

Projected

64.5 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5878, 5314, 10595

Auto

21.0 34%

Teleop

19.8 32%

Endgame

20.3 33%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9674, 7713, 5424

/ 100 compat

Projected

162.6 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 9674, 7713, 5424

Auto

33.4 21%

Teleop

81.6 51%

Endgame

44.1 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.03 · Blue 2.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score64.5pts

Blue projected score162.6pts

Red win probability23%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -98.1
Score range: 39–188
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 293 vs event baseline 138.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

181.8Season APEX213.2

21Auto33.4

19.8Teleop81.6

20.3Endgame44.1

68Consistency50

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	39
teleop	46	114
endgame	48	35
foul	0	0
total	105	188

Result

Final score

105 – 188

Prediction correct · off by 33 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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