FIM District LSSU Event presented by Lake Superior State University

Qualification · Qualification 7

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

55.08 – 69.86

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

163 – 44

Prediction missed · off by 66.9 points

Limited current-season data (6 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 325.8 ±11.7

9722Polar Robotics

Season APEX 72Event APEX -Rank 39Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

857Superior Roboworks

Season APEX 103Event APEX -Rank 8Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4967That ONE Team-OurNextEngineers

Season APEX 150.8Event APEX -Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 192.2 ±13.9

9548Bark River Bronconaughts

Season APEX 98.2Event APEX 33.14Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5706Tahquamenon Phenomenon

Season APEX 59.1Event APEX -Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6098bIrobot

Season APEX 34.9Event APEX -Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9722, 857, 4967

/ 100 compat

Projected

55.1 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 9722, 857, 4967

Auto

16.5 30%

Teleop

27.5 50%

Endgame

11.0 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9548, 5706, 6098

/ 100 compat

Projected

69.9 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 9548, 5706, 6098

Auto

11.3 17%

Teleop

34.9 51%

Endgame

22.2 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.47 · Blue 1.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score55.1pts

Blue projected score69.9pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -14.8
Score range: 35–90
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 207 vs event baseline 110.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

325.8Season APEX192.2

-Auto0.3

-Teleop16.6

-Endgame14.9

-Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	49	10
teleop	82	14
endgame	32	20
foul	0	0
total	163	44

Result

Final score

163 – 44

Prediction missed · off by 66.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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