FIM District LSSU Event presented by Lake Superior State University

Qualification · Qualification 61

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

87.82 – 162.85

28%72%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

96 – 119

Prediction correct · off by 26 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 186.3 ±13.3

6113M.A.R.C. 1

Season APEX 39.5Event APEX -15.19Rank 41Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1596The Instigators

Season APEX 76.6Event APEX 71.77Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5314Ice Bots

Season APEX 70.2Event APEX 31.24Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 312.6 ±10.5

4967That ONE Team-OurNextEngineers

Season APEX 150.8Event APEX 92.9Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7768The AutoMatons

Season APEX 79.4Event APEX 51.54Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9249Chassell Copper Country Cats

Season APEX 82.4Event APEX 18.41Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6113, 1596, 5314

/ 100 compat

Projected

87.8 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 6113, 1596, 5314

Auto

7.8 9%

Teleop

62.5 69%

Endgame

20.6 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4967, 7768, 9249

/ 100 compat

Projected

162.9 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 4967, 7768, 9249

Auto

34.4 22%

Teleop

85.7 54%

Endgame

37.2 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.06 · Blue 2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score87.8pts

Blue projected score162.9pts

Red win probability28%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -75
Score range: 63–188
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 215 vs event baseline 136.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

186.3Season APEX312.6

7.8Auto34.4

62.5Teleop85.7

20.6Endgame37.2

84Consistency27

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	13
teleop	53	87
endgame	14	19
foul	0	0
total	96	119

Result

Final score

96 – 119

Prediction correct · off by 26 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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