FIM District LSSU Event presented by Lake Superior State University

Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

77.24 – 48.1

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

91 – 83

Prediction correct · off by 24.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 184.9 ±13.3

6112Cyberstangs

Season APEX 51.9Event APEX 20.99Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9548Bark River Bronconaughts

Season APEX 98.2Event APEX 36.64Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5213St. Ignace SHIELD

Season APEX 34.8Event APEX 19.61Rank 40Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 228.1 ±13.3

4375Westend Gearbusters

Season APEX 78.2Event APEX 15.89Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9722Polar Robotics

Season APEX 72Event APEX -8.47Rank 39Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7713Norse Code

Season APEX 77.9Event APEX 40.68Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6112, 9548, 5213

/ 100 compat

Projected

77.2 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 6112, 9548, 5213

Auto

9.1 13%

Teleop

35.2 49%

Endgame

28.0 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4375, 9722, 7713

/ 100 compat

Projected

48.1 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 4375, 9722, 7713

Auto

9.3 22%

Teleop

18.3 44%

Endgame

14.2 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.78 · Blue 1.35

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score77.2pts

Blue projected score48.1pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 29.1
Score range: 24–101
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 174 vs event baseline 134.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

184.9Season APEX228.1

9.1Auto9.3

35.2Teleop18.3

28Endgame14.2

65Consistency59

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	6	26
teleop	58	39
endgame	27	18
foul	0	0
total	91	83

Result

Final score

91 – 83

Prediction correct · off by 24.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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