FIM District LSSU Event presented by Lake Superior State University

Qualification · Qualification 56

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

22.55 – 166.14

14%86%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

19 – 141

Prediction correct · off by 14.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 204.9 ±12.8

10595Big Bay de Noc Black Bear Bolts

Season APEX 70.3Event APEX 22.6Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9682Norway Robotics

Season APEX 53.4Event APEX 6.56Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6088Stephenson Eagles

Season APEX 81.2Event APEX -6.61Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 309.3 ±11.7

5878The Great Lakers

Season APEX 41.3Event APEX 10.33Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6637BetaWolves

Season APEX 147.8Event APEX 74.62Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3452GreengineerZ

Season APEX 120.2Event APEX 81.19Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10595, 9682, 6088

/ 100 compat

Projected

22.6 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 10595, 9682, 6088

Auto

13.0 87%

Teleop

6.3 42%

Endgame

-4.4 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5878, 6637, 3452

/ 100 compat

Projected

166.1 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5878, 6637, 3452

Auto

33.6 21%

Teleop

92.5 57%

Endgame

37.2 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.75 · Blue 2.36

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score22.6pts

Blue projected score166.1pts

Red win probability14%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -143.6
Score range: -1–190
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 160 vs event baseline 134.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

204.9Season APEX309.3

13Auto33.6

6.3Teleop92.5

-4.4Endgame37.2

35Consistency35

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	30
teleop	4	70
endgame	0	41
foul	0	0
total	19	141

Result

Final score

19 – 141

Prediction correct · off by 14.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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