FIM District LSSU Event presented by Lake Superior State University

Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

104.27 – 61.61

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

90 – 125

Prediction missed · off by 38.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 262.4 ±11.6

4392The Deceivers

Season APEX 145.2Event APEX 63.23Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5213St. Ignace SHIELD

Season APEX 34.8Event APEX 22.75Rank 40Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9249Chassell Copper Country Cats

Season APEX 82.4Event APEX 18.29Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 223.5 ±13.9

7713Norse Code

Season APEX 77.9Event APEX 33.35Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5314Ice Bots

Season APEX 70.2Event APEX 26.88Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10605Techno Talons

Season APEX 75.4Event APEX 1.38Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4392, 5213, 9249

/ 100 compat

Projected

104.3 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4392, 5213, 9249

Auto

31.6 31%

Teleop

60.4 59%

Endgame

9.9 10%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7713, 5314, 10605

/ 100 compat

Projected

61.6 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 7713, 5314, 10605

Auto

5.5 10%

Teleop

19.0 35%

Endgame

30.2 55%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.75 · Blue 1.38

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score104.3pts

Blue projected score61.6pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 42.7
Score range: 38–128
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 215 vs event baseline 134.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

262.4Season APEX223.5

31.6Auto5.5

60.4Teleop19

9.9Endgame30.2

48Consistency45

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	47	19
teleop	28	54
endgame	15	52
foul	0	0
total	90	125

Result

Final score

90 – 125

Prediction missed · off by 38.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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