Qualification · Qualification 52
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
119.89 – 106.58
54%46%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
228 – 62
Prediction correct · off by 76.3 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 313.2 ±12.2
Season APEX 143.6Event APEX 42.92Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 101.9Event APEX 66.54Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 67.7Event APEX 10.43Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 267.8 ±12.2
Season APEX 147.8Event APEX 81.44Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 48Event APEX 32.85Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 72Event APEX -7.71Rank 39Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 4779, 6077, 4377
56
/ 100 compatProjected
119.9 pts
~1.7 RP (district)
Teams: 4779, 6077, 4377
Auto
25.7 21%
Teleop
73.2 61%
Endgame
21.3 18%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 60%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 6637, 10622, 9722
54
/ 100 compatProjected
106.6 pts
~1.5 RP (district)
Teams: 6637, 10622, 9722
Auto
17.5 17%
Teleop
53.2 51%
Endgame
34.2 33%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 60%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.73 · Blue 1.51
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score119.9pts
Blue projected score106.6pts
Red win probability54%
Event bonus sample194alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 60%, blue 56%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 13.3
- Score range
- 83–144
- Upset likelihood
- 46%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
313.2Season APEX267.8
25.7Auto17.5
73.2Teleop53.2
21.3Endgame34.2
36Consistency51
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 20 | 38 |
| teleop | 102 | 21 |
| endgame | 106 | 3 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 228 | 62 |
Result
Final score
228 – 62
Prediction correct · off by 76.3 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
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