FIM District LSSU Event presented by Lake Superior State University

Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

190.04 – 158.97

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

160 – 189

Prediction missed · off by 30 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 278.1 ±12.8

6558Aluminum Sting

Season APEX 55.6Event APEX 33.87Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8517Bounty Hunters

Season APEX 170.6Event APEX 128.52Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6112Cyberstangs

Season APEX 51.9Event APEX 27.65Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 328.7 ±11

857Superior Roboworks

Season APEX 103Event APEX 51.89Rank 8Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6088Stephenson Eagles

Season APEX 81.2Event APEX -9.88Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4398Gladiators

Season APEX 144.5Event APEX 116.96Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6558, 8517, 6112

/ 100 compat

Projected

190 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 6558, 8517, 6112

Auto

28.0 15%

Teleop

108.4 59%

Endgame

47.0 26%

Strengths

· 8517 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 857, 6088, 4398

/ 100 compat

Projected

159 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 857, 6088, 4398

Auto

40.5 25%

Teleop

81.0 51%

Endgame

37.9 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.87 · Blue 1.35

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score190pts

Blue projected score159pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 31.1
Score range: 135–214
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 349 vs event baseline 133.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

278.1Season APEX328.7

28Auto40.5

108.4Teleop81

47Endgame37.9

45Consistency66

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	49
teleop	71	100
endgame	52	40
foul	0	0
total	160	189

Result

Final score

160 – 189

Prediction missed · off by 30 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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