FIM District LSSU Event presented by Lake Superior State University

Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

97.9 – 221.94

18%82%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

130 – 229

Prediction correct · off by 19.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 233.6 ±13.3

5878The Great Lakers

Season APEX 41.3Event APEX 10.6Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9548Bark River Bronconaughts

Season APEX 98.2Event APEX 38.82Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10589Binary Crows

Season APEX 94.1Event APEX 48.48Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 381.1 ±11.7

1596The Instigators

Season APEX 76.6Event APEX 75.43Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5216E-Ville Empire

Season APEX 234.2Event APEX 121.16Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10595Big Bay de Noc Black Bear Bolts

Season APEX 70.3Event APEX 25.35Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5878, 9548, 10589

/ 100 compat

Projected

97.9 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5878, 9548, 10589

Auto

18.9 19%

Teleop

60.9 62%

Endgame

18.3 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1596, 5216, 10595

/ 100 compat

Projected

221.9 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 1596, 5216, 10595

Auto

24.1 11%

Teleop

143.4 68%

Endgame

43.0 20%

Strengths

· 5216 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.95 · Blue 2.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score97.9pts

Blue projected score221.9pts

Red win probability18%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -124
Score range: 74–246
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 359 vs event baseline 132.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

233.6Season APEX381.1

18.9Auto24.1

60.9Teleop143.4

18.3Endgame43

45Consistency88

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	43
teleop	39	148
endgame	70	38
foul	0	0
total	130	229

Result

Final score

130 – 229

Prediction correct · off by 19.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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