FIM District LSSU Event presented by Lake Superior State University

Qualification · Qualification 48

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

117.99 – 53.05

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

90 – 102

Prediction missed · off by 38.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 362 ±12.4

10605Techno Talons

Season APEX 75.4Event APEX 4.34Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3536Electro Eagles

Season APEX 214.6Event APEX 116.57Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9722Polar Robotics

Season APEX 72Event APEX -2.92Rank 39Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 162.6 ±13.3

5314Ice Bots

Season APEX 70.2Event APEX 24.59Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5424Rogue Robots

Season APEX 39Event APEX 23.31Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9682Norway Robotics

Season APEX 53.4Event APEX 5.15Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10605, 3536, 9722

/ 100 compat

Projected

118 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 10605, 3536, 9722

Auto

16.7 15%

Teleop

72.7 63%

Endgame

25.7 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5314, 5424, 9682

/ 100 compat

Projected

53.1 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5314, 5424, 9682

Auto

9.3 17%

Teleop

14.8 27%

Endgame

30.5 56%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.95 · Blue 1.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score118pts

Blue projected score53.1pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 64.9
Score range: 29–142
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 192 vs event baseline 132.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

362Season APEX162.6

16.7Auto9.3

72.7Teleop14.8

25.7Endgame30.5

68Consistency63

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	19
teleop	65	46
endgame	6	37
foul	5	0
total	90	102

Result

Final score

90 – 102

Prediction missed · off by 38.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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