FIM District LSSU Event presented by Lake Superior State University

Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

114.68 – 111.12

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

104 – 172

Prediction missed · off by 35.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 190.2 ±12.7

5706Tahquamenon Phenomenon

Season APEX 59.1Event APEX 20.91Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5213St. Ignace SHIELD

Season APEX 34.8Event APEX 28.39Rank 40Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9674Trojan Power Robotics

Season APEX 96.3Event APEX 65.38Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 266.5 ±11.7

4377Boyne City Blaze

Season APEX 67.7Event APEX 4.21Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4967That ONE Team-OurNextEngineers

Season APEX 150.8Event APEX 80.84Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10622Gwinn ModelBots

Season APEX 48Event APEX 26.07Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5706, 5213, 9674

/ 100 compat

Projected

114.7 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5706, 5213, 9674

Auto

28.1 25%

Teleop

61.3 55%

Endgame

22.8 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4377, 4967, 10622

/ 100 compat

Projected

111.1 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 4377, 4967, 10622

Auto

23.7 22%

Teleop

50.4 48%

Endgame

31.9 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.58 · Blue 1.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score114.7pts

Blue projected score111.1pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 3.6
Score range: 87–139
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 276 vs event baseline 132.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

190.2Season APEX266.5

28.1Auto23.7

61.3Teleop50.4

22.8Endgame31.9

67Consistency83

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	42
teleop	53	81
endgame	27	49
foul	5	0
total	104	172

Result

Final score

104 – 172

Prediction missed · off by 35.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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