Qualification · Qualification 44
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
211.96 – 189.47
57%43%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
216 – 209
Prediction correct · off by 11.8 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 495.4 ±10.7
Season APEX 216.6Event APEX 74.12Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 44.6Event APEX 15.83Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 234.2Event APEX 122.01Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 384.5 ±11.7
Season APEX 70.3Event APEX 24.28Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 143.6Event APEX 43.84Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 170.6Event APEX 121.35Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 6121, 5547, 5216
86
/ 100 compatProjected
212 pts
~1.8 RP (district)
Teams: 6121, 5547, 5216
Auto
46.6 23%
Teleop
123.7 60%
Endgame
36.8 18%
Strengths
- · 5216 anchors offense
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 64%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 10595, 4779, 8517
83
/ 100 compatProjected
189.5 pts
~1.5 RP (district)
Teams: 10595, 4779, 8517
Auto
29.8 17%
Teleop
109.3 61%
Endgame
40.3 22%
Strengths
- · 8517 anchors offense
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 64%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.82 · Blue 1.47
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score212pts
Blue projected score189.5pts
Red win probability57%
Event bonus sample194alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 64%, blue 57%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 22.5
- Score range
- 166–235
- Upset likelihood
- 43%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
495.4Season APEX384.5
46.6Auto29.8
123.7Teleop109.3
36.8Endgame40.3
109Consistency107
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 20 | 51 |
| teleop | 106 | 128 |
| endgame | 85 | 25 |
| foul | 5 | 5 |
| total | 216 | 209 |
Result
Final score
216 – 209
Prediction correct · off by 11.8 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
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