FIM District LSSU Event presented by Lake Superior State University

Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

155 – 52.71

78%22%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

85 – 52

Prediction correct · off by 35.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 266.7 ±11.7

7768The AutoMatons

Season APEX 79.4Event APEX 65.62Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6113M.A.R.C. 1

Season APEX 39.5Event APEX -6.9Rank 41Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6637BetaWolves

Season APEX 147.8Event APEX 96.28Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 253.5 ±11.6

6088Stephenson Eagles

Season APEX 81.2Event APEX -11.33Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4375Westend Gearbusters

Season APEX 78.2Event APEX 14.55Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10589Binary Crows

Season APEX 94.1Event APEX 49.49Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7768, 6113, 6637

/ 100 compat

Projected

155 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 7768, 6113, 6637

Auto

26.9 18%

Teleop

99.4 66%

Endgame

24.9 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6088, 4375, 10589

/ 100 compat

Projected

52.7 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 6088, 4375, 10589

Auto

13.8 24%

Teleop

28.0 48%

Endgame

16.0 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.02 · Blue 0.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score155pts

Blue projected score52.7pts

Red win probability78%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 102.3
Score range: 29–179
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 137 vs event baseline 131.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

266.7Season APEX253.5

26.9Auto13.8

99.4Teleop28

24.9Endgame16

44Consistency56

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	13
teleop	49	29
endgame	12	10
foul	0	0
total	85	52

Result

Final score

85 – 52

Prediction correct · off by 35.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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