FIM District LSSU Event presented by Lake Superior State University

Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

52.64 – 204.04

13%87%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

64 – 197

Prediction correct · off by 9.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 140 ±13.3

10595Big Bay de Noc Black Bear Bolts

Season APEX 70.3Event APEX 25.21Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6098bIrobot

Season APEX 34.9Event APEX -1.81Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5213St. Ignace SHIELD

Season APEX 34.8Event APEX 29.24Rank 40Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 411.7 ±11.2

3536Electro Eagles

Season APEX 214.6Event APEX 125.31Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4392The Deceivers

Season APEX 145.2Event APEX 60.11Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6112Cyberstangs

Season APEX 51.9Event APEX 18.62Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10595, 6098, 5213

/ 100 compat

Projected

52.6 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 10595, 6098, 5213

Auto

4.3 9%

Teleop

20.3 43%

Endgame

22.4 48%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3536, 4392, 6112

/ 100 compat

Projected

204 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 3536, 4392, 6112

Auto

42.3 21%

Teleop

128.6 62%

Endgame

35.3 17%

Strengths

· 3536 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.75 · Blue 2.37

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score52.6pts

Blue projected score204pts

Red win probability13%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -151.4
Score range: 29–228
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 261 vs event baseline 130.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

140Season APEX411.7

4.3Auto42.3

20.3Teleop128.6

22.4Endgame35.3

99Consistency42

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	34
teleop	16	135
endgame	10	28
foul	15	0
total	64	197

Result

Final score

64 – 197

Prediction correct · off by 9.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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