FIM District LSSU Event presented by Lake Superior State University

Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

124.45 – 226.62

22%78%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

121 – 250

Prediction correct · off by 13.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 408.5 ±11.2

4779RoboSapiens

Season APEX 143.6Event APEX 48.73Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6121RoboVikes

Season APEX 216.6Event APEX 71Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9733Gold Diggers

Season APEX 48.3Event APEX 4.72Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 387.1 ±11.7

8517Bounty Hunters

Season APEX 170.6Event APEX 115.36Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9722Polar Robotics

Season APEX 72Event APEX -0.12Rank 39Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4398Gladiators

Season APEX 144.5Event APEX 111.38Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4779, 6121, 9733

/ 100 compat

Projected

124.5 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 4779, 6121, 9733

Auto

31.0 24%

Teleop

78.0 61%

Endgame

19.8 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8517, 9722, 4398

/ 100 compat

Projected

226.6 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 8517, 9722, 4398

Auto

51.3 24%

Teleop

108.2 50%

Endgame

57.3 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.07 · Blue 2.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score124.5pts

Blue projected score226.6pts

Red win probability22%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -102.2
Score range: 101–250
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 371 vs event baseline 129.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

408.5Season APEX387.1

31Auto51.3

78Teleop108.2

19.8Endgame57.3

115Consistency64

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	59	33
teleop	45	150
endgame	17	67
foul	0	0
total	121	250

Result

Final score

121 – 250

Prediction correct · off by 13.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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