FIM District LSSU Event presented by Lake Superior State University

Qualification · Qualification 36

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

112.01 – 96.43

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

200 – 173

Prediction correct · off by 82.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 262 ±12.1

9249Chassell Copper Country Cats

Season APEX 82.4Event APEX 13.37Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

857Superior Roboworks

Season APEX 103Event APEX 37.66Rank 8Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1596The Instigators

Season APEX 76.6Event APEX 60.98Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 231.4 ±12.2

5547The Talons

Season APEX 44.6Event APEX 1.73Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5424Rogue Robots

Season APEX 39Event APEX 11.53Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6637BetaWolves

Season APEX 147.8Event APEX 83.17Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9249, 857, 1596

/ 100 compat

Projected

112 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 9249, 857, 1596

Auto

29.1 26%

Teleop

69.8 63%

Endgame

12.1 11%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5547, 5424, 6637

/ 100 compat

Projected

96.4 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 5547, 5424, 6637

Auto

22.7 26%

Teleop

39.6 45%

Endgame

26.6 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.68 · Blue 1.46

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score112pts

Blue projected score96.4pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 15.6
Score range: 73–135
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 373 vs event baseline 130.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

262Season APEX231.4

29.1Auto22.7

69.8Teleop39.6

12.1Endgame26.6

52Consistency56

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	24
teleop	103	106
endgame	59	43
foul	5	0
total	200	173

Result

Final score

200 – 173

Prediction correct · off by 82.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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