FIM District LSSU Event presented by Lake Superior State University

Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

30.76 – 96.6

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

149 – 121

Prediction missed · off by 71.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 184.6 ±13.3

6098bIrobot

Season APEX 34.9Event APEX -18.73Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10589Binary Crows

Season APEX 94.1Event APEX 34.39Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6558Aluminum Sting

Season APEX 55.6Event APEX 15.1Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 202.3 ±13.3

5706Tahquamenon Phenomenon

Season APEX 59.1Event APEX 26.12Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6077Wiking Kujon

Season APEX 101.9Event APEX 63.84Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5878The Great Lakers

Season APEX 41.3Event APEX 6.64Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6098, 10589, 6558

/ 100 compat

Projected

30.8 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 6098, 10589, 6558

Auto

10.9 34%

Teleop

0.0 0%

Endgame

21.3 66%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5706, 6077, 5878

/ 100 compat

Projected

96.6 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5706, 6077, 5878

Auto

18.0 18%

Teleop

50.7 50%

Endgame

33.3 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.19 · Blue 2.02

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score30.8pts

Blue projected score96.6pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -65.8
Score range: 8–120
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 270 vs event baseline 129.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

184.6Season APEX202.3

10.9Auto18

0Teleop50.7

21.3Endgame33.3

28Consistency62

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	21
teleop	103	74
endgame	26	26
foul	0	0
total	149	121

Result

Final score

149 – 121

Prediction missed · off by 71.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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