FIM District LSSU Event presented by Lake Superior State University

Qualification · Qualification 34

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

89.78 – 195.04

21%79%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

100 – 185

Prediction correct · off by 10.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 260.6 ±12.4

10595Big Bay de Noc Black Bear Bolts

Season APEX 70.3Event APEX 14.81Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4967That ONE Team-OurNextEngineers

Season APEX 150.8Event APEX 80.77Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6113M.A.R.C. 1

Season APEX 39.5Event APEX -5.8Rank 41Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 352 ±11.7

8517Bounty Hunters

Season APEX 170.6Event APEX 115.69Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10666Green MachineZ

Season APEX 106Event APEX 69.36Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10605Techno Talons

Season APEX 75.4Event APEX 9.99Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10595, 4967, 6113

/ 100 compat

Projected

89.8 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 10595, 4967, 6113

Auto

15.4 18%

Teleop

49.7 57%

Endgame

21.7 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8517, 10666, 10605

/ 100 compat

Projected

195 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 8517, 10666, 10605

Auto

33.9 18%

Teleop

111.2 58%

Endgame

45.0 24%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.89 · Blue 2.22

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score89.8pts

Blue projected score195pts

Red win probability21%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -105.3
Score range: 67–218
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 285 vs event baseline 129.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

260.6Season APEX352

15.4Auto33.9

49.7Teleop111.2

21.7Endgame45

105Consistency82

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	26
teleop	59	107
endgame	4	37
foul	20	15
total	100	185

Result

Final score

100 – 185

Prediction correct · off by 10.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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