FIM District LSSU Event presented by Lake Superior State University

Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

150.28 – 139.77

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

130 – 157

Prediction missed · off by 18.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 296.6 ±12.2

9548Bark River Bronconaughts

Season APEX 98.2Event APEX 47.83Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4375Westend Gearbusters

Season APEX 78.2Event APEX 25.23Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3452GreengineerZ

Season APEX 120.2Event APEX 77.22Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 338.8 ±11.7

5216E-Ville Empire

Season APEX 234.2Event APEX 107.43Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5486Robotic Turmoil

Season APEX 56.3Event APEX 29.21Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9733Gold Diggers

Season APEX 48.3Event APEX 3.13Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9548, 4375, 3452

/ 100 compat

Projected

150.3 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 9548, 4375, 3452

Auto

16.3 11%

Teleop

95.9 65%

Endgame

36.3 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5216, 5486, 9733

/ 100 compat

Projected

139.8 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 5216, 5486, 9733

Auto

36.6 28%

Teleop

70.2 53%

Endgame

25.2 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.71 · Blue 1.53

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score150.3pts

Blue projected score139.8pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 10.5
Score range: 117–173
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 287 vs event baseline 129.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

296.6Season APEX338.8

16.3Auto36.6

95.9Teleop70.2

36.3Endgame25.2

52Consistency119

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	24
teleop	69	94
endgame	50	29
foul	0	10
total	130	157

Result

Final score

130 – 157

Prediction missed · off by 18.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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