FIM District LSSU Event presented by Lake Superior State University

Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

128.22 – 169.77

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

82 – 142

Prediction correct · off by 37 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 240.5 ±11.6

5486Robotic Turmoil

Season APEX 56.3Event APEX 20.3Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4392The Deceivers

Season APEX 145.2Event APEX 66.38Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5424Rogue Robots

Season APEX 39Event APEX 41.54Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 445.6 ±9.8

6637BetaWolves

Season APEX 147.8Event APEX 73.49Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6088Stephenson Eagles

Season APEX 81.2Event APEX 4.33Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6121RoboVikes

Season APEX 216.6Event APEX 91.95Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5486, 4392, 5424

/ 100 compat

Projected

128.2 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5486, 4392, 5424

Auto

35.9 30%

Teleop

64.7 54%

Endgame

19.8 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6637, 6088, 6121

/ 100 compat

Projected

169.8 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 6637, 6088, 6121

Auto

45.6 28%

Teleop

82.6 51%

Endgame

33.0 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.22 · Blue 1.78

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score128.2pts

Blue projected score169.8pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -41.6
Score range: 102–196
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 224 vs event baseline 147.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

240.5Season APEX445.6

35.9Auto45.6

64.7Teleop82.6

19.8Endgame33

28Consistency46

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	40
teleop	28	69
endgame	8	33
foul	5	0
total	82	142

Result

Final score

82 – 142

Prediction correct · off by 37 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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