FIM District LSSU Event presented by Lake Superior State University

Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

111.64 – 81.18

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

170 – 66

Prediction correct · off by 36.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 321.5 ±11.7

10666Green MachineZ

Season APEX 106Event APEX 67.67Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10595Big Bay de Noc Black Bear Bolts

Season APEX 70.3Event APEX -0.74Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4392The Deceivers

Season APEX 145.2Event APEX 44.71Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 222.4 ±12.7

9722Polar Robotics

Season APEX 72Event APEX 6.32Rank 39Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10589Binary Crows

Season APEX 94.1Event APEX 27.74Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5486Robotic Turmoil

Season APEX 56.3Event APEX 47.12Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10666, 10595, 4392

/ 100 compat

Projected

111.6 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 10666, 10595, 4392

Auto

33.7 31%

Teleop

57.8 53%

Endgame

18.5 17%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9722, 10589, 5486

/ 100 compat

Projected

81.2 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 9722, 10589, 5486

Auto

35.2 55%

Teleop

27.5 43%

Endgame

1.5 2%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.73 · Blue 1.3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score111.6pts

Blue projected score81.2pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 30.5
Score range: 58–135
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 236 vs event baseline 129.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

321.5Season APEX222.4

33.7Auto35.2

57.8Teleop27.5

18.5Endgame1.5

113Consistency6

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	8
teleop	100	35
endgame	46	23
foul	5	0
total	170	66

Result

Final score

170 – 66

Prediction correct · off by 36.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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