FIM District LSSU Event presented by Lake Superior State University

Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

107.87 – 83.01

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

162 – 42

Prediction correct · off by 47.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 368.7 ±12.4

5216E-Ville Empire

Season APEX 234.2Event APEX 92.48Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10605Techno Talons

Season APEX 75.4Event APEX 9.44Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5706Tahquamenon Phenomenon

Season APEX 59.1Event APEX 5.95Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 194.4 ±13.3

6113M.A.R.C. 1

Season APEX 39.5Event APEX 23.01Rank 41Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6112Cyberstangs

Season APEX 51.9Event APEX 23.94Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

857Superior Roboworks

Season APEX 103Event APEX 36.06Rank 8Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5216, 10605, 5706

/ 100 compat

Projected

107.9 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5216, 10605, 5706

Auto

19.2 19%

Teleop

64.6 64%

Endgame

16.5 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6113, 6112, 857

/ 100 compat

Projected

83 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 6113, 6112, 857

Auto

20.4 25%

Teleop

53.2 64%

Endgame

9.2 11%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.79 · Blue 1.35

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score107.9pts

Blue projected score83pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 24.9
Score range: 60–131
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 204 vs event baseline 126.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

368.7Season APEX194.4

19.2Auto20.4

64.6Teleop53.2

16.5Endgame9.2

156Consistency76

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	16
teleop	91	15
endgame	45	11
foul	0	0
total	162	42

Result

Final score

162 – 42

Prediction correct · off by 47.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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