FIM District LSSU Event presented by Lake Superior State University

Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

123.95 – 243.93

18%82%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

73 – 165

Prediction correct · off by 64.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 258.2 ±12.8

3452GreengineerZ

Season APEX 120.2Event APEX 74Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10595Big Bay de Noc Black Bear Bolts

Season APEX 70.3Event APEX 24.48Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4377Boyne City Blaze

Season APEX 67.7Event APEX 25.47Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 316.6 ±12.2

5314Ice Bots

Season APEX 70.2Event APEX 47.56Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4398Gladiators

Season APEX 144.5Event APEX 113.49Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6077Wiking Kujon

Season APEX 101.9Event APEX 82.88Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3452, 10595, 4377

/ 100 compat

Projected

124 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 3452, 10595, 4377

Auto

16.1 14%

Teleop

66.5 58%

Endgame

32.8 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5314, 4398, 6077

/ 100 compat

Projected

243.9 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5314, 4398, 6077

Auto

48.8 20%

Teleop

115.9 48%

Endgame

77.4 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.95 · Blue 2.35

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score124pts

Blue projected score243.9pts

Red win probability18%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 68%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -120
Score range: 98–270
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 238 vs event baseline 147.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

258.2Season APEX316.6

16.1Auto48.8

66.5Teleop115.9

32.8Endgame77.4

27Consistency59

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	10
teleop	33	72
endgame	8	83
foul	15	0
total	73	165

Result

Final score

73 – 165

Prediction correct · off by 64.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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